Auto Market Recap Q1 2022

Auto Market Recap Q1 2022 (PDF)

Will there be a spring market? Although there is uncertainty about how strong the spring market will be this year, here’s what we saw in Q1 2022:

With a continued lack of new inventory for rental companies, high fuel prices, and tax season, we have seen a change to the market declines we’ve been experiencing in recent weeks throughout March. This past week, some popular tax season vehicles and fuel-efficient segments reported increases; however, the market is still not increasing at rates that we would typically expect during the spring season.

Q1 Market Insights Recap:

• Full-Size Vans continue to be the anomaly, but the rate of increase is slowing down, with the segment only increasing by +0.11% the week ending March 12th, the lowest rate of gain since the week of July 23, 2021 (+0.09%).
• As we moved into March, the Wholesale Weekly Price Index continued to decline and is now just below the 2019 trend line, around 0.97.
• Used Retail Listing Volume continues to drop and now sits around 0.98.
• The Used Retail Days-to-Turn Estimate also dropped this week and is now just above 40 days, which is slightly lower than typically seen in March of previous years.
• Recent increased competition among franchise dealers, independent dealers, and rental companies has wholesale values in some segments on the upswing again, after several weeks of declines, which is a positive indicator for a somewhat traditional spring market.
• The Estimated Average Weekly Sales Rate continues to ascend – this week it is now at 67%, which is very similar to the trend seen in CY21. An increased Estimated Average Weekly Sales Rate at this time of year is another positive indicator for a spring market.

Week over Weel Wholesale Price Changes Chart of 2-8 year old vehicles: