New Vehicle Sales Projections 2020-2024
Car sales in the United States could range between 10.2 and 12.7 million units in 2020. The car industry was expected to sell about 16.9 million vehicles before COVID but the market outlook has worsened.
In 2019, 17 million new cars were sold in the US, slightly down from record sales years 2015 and 2018, when new car sales exceeded 17.5 million units.
Below is a table outlining the best and worst case scenarios and forecast for US car sales in the next 4 years.
| Year | Pre-COVID19 Projections x (Million New Cars) |
Best Case Scenario |
Reduction Percentage | Worst Case Scenario |
Reduction Percentage |
| 2020 | 16.90 | 12.70 | -25% | 10.20 | -40% |
| 2021 | 16.90 | 14.50 | -14% | 11.20 | -34% |
| 2022 | 16.80 | 16.00 | -5% | 13.40 | -20% |
| 2023 | 16.70 | 16.50 | -1% | 16.00 | -4% |
| 2024 | 16.60 | 16.20 | -2% | 15.00 | -10% |
Reasons for the reduced number of new car sales for the coming years:
- Delayed lease returns due to manufacturer extensions
- Rental car fleet reductions due to reduced economic activity
- Overall economic downturn
- Tightening credit market
- High level of repossessions which will flood market with late model vehicles
- Less driving overall due to work from home going mainstream
