The Big Picture: Sales Slowdown Continues
The U.S. new-vehicle market is feeling a continued pull-back, driven largely by the pull-ahead of electric vehicle (EV) purchases prior to the expiration of federal EV tax credits on September 30.
- Total Sales Decline: Total new-vehicle sales for November 2025 are projected to be 1,255,900 , a 5.2% decrease year over year. November 2025 has 25 selling days, one fewer than November 2024.
- Retail Sales Dip: New-vehicle retail sales are expected to hit 1,058,500 , a 4.8% decrease from November 2024.
- Total SAAR: The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million units , down 1.2 million units from November 2024.
The EV Effect on Pricing and Incentives
The expiration of EV tax credits has been a significant market disruptor , causing automakers to adjust pricing and incentive strategies.
- EV Share Stabilizes (But Lower): EVs are expected to account for just 6.0% of new-vehicle retail sales in November , consistent with October but well below the 12.9% recorded in September.
- Hefty EV Discounts: Automakers continue to rely heavily on incentives to drive EV sales. Discounts on EVs are expected to average $11,869 in November.
- Non-EV Discounts: Discounts on non-EVs are projected at $2,960.
- Lower Overall Incentives: The average manufacturer’s incentive spend per vehicle is on track to reach $3,211 , which is $125 lower than a year ago. This is mostly due to sales shifting away from heavily discounted EVs and moving towards non-EVs with much lower discounts.
Impact on Your Vehicle’s Value & Loan
This forecast has several key points that directly affect car buyers and those looking to trade in:
What this means for you:
- Your Used Car is Valuable: Strong used-vehicle values (trending toward $29,696 ) are providing meaningful relief to buyers.
- Higher Payments and Longer Terms: Monthly finance payments are reaching a record for the month of November at $760. In response, more consumers are turning to extended 84-month loan terms, which are expected to account for 11.1% of financed sales.
- Negative Equity is Rising: The number of new-vehicle buyers with negative equity on their trade-in is expected to reach 26.9% this month —an increase of 3.3 percentage points from November 2024.
Other Key Trends to Note
- Leasing Decline: Leasing is expected to account for 20.5% of sales , down 2.7 percentage points from a year ago. EV leasing has declined 12.0 percentage points from November 2024, trending at 54%.
- Retailer Profits Hold Steady: Total retailer profit per unit is expected to be $2,161 , up $6 from November 2024. This improvement is primarily a function of lower EV sales, which typically generate lower retailer profits than non-EVs.
- Subprime Mix: Subprime mix fell slightly from October to 8.9% in November , but is still 2.8 percentage points higher than November 2024.
- Trucks/SUVs Dominate: Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 82.6% of new-vehicle retail sales , up 1.0 percentage point from November 2024.
The Outlook
The industry enters the holiday sales season facing a mix of affordability challenges, evolving incentive strategies and lingering effects from the EV pull-ahead. The number of leases set to expire in December is projected to be more than 15% lower than a year ago. Automakers are expected to maintain disciplined pricing and restrained incentives, particularly in non-EV segments. How aggressively manufacturers choose to adjust discounting during December will be critical in shaping the close of 2025.
